This study uses an analysis of new data on deforestation in the humid tropics to estimate deforestation within protected areas between 2000 and 2005. These estimates are used in combination with analysis of data on carbon stocks to identify regions where protected areas are simultaneously rich in carbon and under pressure from land cover change.

The principal reasons for tropical deforestation are conversion to cropland and pasture at both small and large scales (Geist & Lambin 2002, Lambin et al. 2001). However, the causes of deforestation differ among tropical regions (Rudel 2007). Pasture expansion is a major cause of deforestation (Chomitz et al. 2006, Steinfeld et al. 2006), especially in Latin America, where it has been the most important cause of forest loss over the last decade (Kaimowitz et al. 2004, Laurance et al. 2004, Nepstad et al. 2006a, Soares-Filho et al. 2006, Nepstad et al. 2008). Recently soybean production has become one of the most important contributors to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon (Cerri et al. 2007). It has been estimated that by 2015, approximately 60% of the newly deforested area in the Brazilian Amazon will be used for soybean cultivation (Cerri et al. 2007), though much of that land will first have passed through a phase of use as cattle pasture (Morton et al. 2006). Rapid growth in consumption of vegetable oils both for food and biodiesel (OECD, FAO 2007) is driving rapid expansion of oil palm plantations. The total oil palm area in Indonesia expanded by more than an order of magnitude between 1967 and 2000, from less than 2000 km2 to over 30,000 km 2 (FWI/GFW 2002), with much of this area derived from deforestation.