Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W., Araújo, M. B., Martinez-Meyer, E., Brotons, L., Mcclean, C., Miles, L., Segurado, P., Dawson, T. P. and Lees, D. C. (2006). Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography 33(10) 1704-1711. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x
Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy-guiding applications.