This report reviews approaches to scenario development in support of policy development and decision-making based on the consideration of synergies and trade-offs between agricultural or other natural resource-based development and maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem service values. Actors working to improve food security, environmental conservation and rural livelihoods in the developing world face many uncertainties when exploring future development. Scenario development and analysis is increasingly used by scientists and policymakers to better understand potential future changes in drivers such as climate change, human population and demands for food and fuel and to address the associated uncertainties.

The review was conducted in the first instance to support UNEP-WCMC's work on assessing the potential impacts of different socioeconomic future on biodiversity and ecosystem services through land-use change. It sought to enable those who are considering using scenarios in their work to navigate the terminology, and better understand the function of scenarios, how they are used and the different scenario development approaches and methods.

The review is now being made available with a wider aim of building the capacity of national and sub-national decision makers to understand and use scenario development, in more integrated approaches to policy development and review.